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Hurricane ISABEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2003

SURFACE OBSERVATION SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ISABEL HAS RISEN
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED
RECENTLY HAS BEEN ABOUT 991 MB IN THE STAUNTON VIRGINIA AREA.  THIS
IS THE BASIS FOR THE 987 MB IN THE ADVISORY...AND EVEN THAT MIGHT
BE A STRETCH.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45
KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  ISABEL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT STARTS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HR.

THE RADAR SIGNATURE HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT THE CENTER IS
HARD TO PIN DOWN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A RATHER UNCERTAIN
335/18.  ISABEL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH
A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION PERSISTING UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 39.2N  78.7W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 42.8N  79.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 49.4N  79.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 56.0N  77.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 61.1N  75.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC