Hurricane ISABEL

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HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003
 
ISABEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS IMPRESSIVE COLD
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE 35 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90 KT FROM AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ISABEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH THE
SYSTEM ENDING UP JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE INTENSIFICATION OF ISABEL
VERY WELL SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 16.1N  40.2W    80 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.8N  42.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.7N  44.4W    90 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N  46.9W    95 KT
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 19.2N  49.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.7N  53.2W   100 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 20.2N  56.7W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 20.5N  60.0W   100 KT
 
 
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