ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 ISABEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS IMPRESSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE 35 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ISABEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH THE SYSTEM ENDING UP JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE INTENSIFICATION OF ISABEL VERY WELL SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 16.1N 40.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 16.8N 42.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 17.7N 44.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 18.5N 46.9W 95 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 19.2N 49.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 19.7N 53.2W 100 KT 96HR VT 12/0000Z 20.2N 56.7W 100 KT 120HR VT 13/0000Z 20.5N 60.0W 100 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC