Tropical Depression TWELVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A 
25-KNOT SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY SURFACE AND RECON DATA.
THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED DEPRESSION IS POORLY DEFINED AND
CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SQUALLY
WEATHER WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
IDEAL...BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING LITTLE BUT IT WILL SOON BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. 

IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS...ONCE IN THE ATLANTIC...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. 
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 27.5N  87.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N  87.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 29.2N  84.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  82.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  80.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  77.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 34.0N  73.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  69.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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