Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GRACE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

THE HIGHEST WINDS RECENTLY OBSERVED WERE ABOUT 30 KNOTS AT SABINE
PASS CMAN STATION AND GRACE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AND ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.  THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
THE DEEP CONVECTION.   

THE POSITION OF THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OR ELONGATED TROUGH IS AT
THE TEXAS COAST.  AT 13Z THE LOWEST PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB WAS NEAR
GALVESTON...BUT AT 12Z BUOY 42019 HAS 1008.7 MB.  THE CENTER
POSTION IS KEPT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE BUOY BUT IT COULD JUST AS
WELL BE 100 MILES FURTHER NORTH NEAR GALVESTON.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/13.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS A WEAKNESS OVER TEXAS AND A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS INLAND.  THE IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
GFDL...GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE UKMET FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE EXAGGERATED TURN FROM NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD BUT HAS THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA AS THE OTHER MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE
RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.
  
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS INLAND FLOODING FROM RAINFALL WITH THE FORWARD
SPEED EXPECTED TO SLOW TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WITH
UP TO 6 INCHES ALREADY REPORTED IN HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...
AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 28.4N  96.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 29.2N  97.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.5N  99.6W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N 101.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC