Tropical Storm GRACE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

THE HIGHEST WINDS RECENTLY OBSERVED WERE ABOUT 30 KNOTS AT SABINE
PASS CMAN STATION AND GRACE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AND ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.  THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
THE DEEP CONVECTION.   

THE POSITION OF THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OR ELONGATED TROUGH IS AT
THE TEXAS COAST.  AT 13Z THE LOWEST PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB WAS NEAR
GALVESTON...BUT AT 12Z BUOY 42019 HAS 1008.7 MB.  THE CENTER
POSTION IS KEPT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE BUOY BUT IT COULD JUST AS
WELL BE 100 MILES FURTHER NORTH NEAR GALVESTON.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/13.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS A WEAKNESS OVER TEXAS AND A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS INLAND.  THE IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
GFDL...GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE UKMET FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE EXAGGERATED TURN FROM NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD BUT HAS THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA AS THE OTHER MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE
RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.
  
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS INLAND FLOODING FROM RAINFALL WITH THE FORWARD
SPEED EXPECTED TO SLOW TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WITH
UP TO 6 INCHES ALREADY REPORTED IN HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...
AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 28.4N  96.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 29.2N  97.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.5N  99.6W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N 101.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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