Tropical Storm GRACE

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TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003
 
AIR FORCE RECON FOUND MULTIPLE...POORLY-DEFINED CENTERS WITHIN A
LARGER ELONGATED CIRCULATION.  THE POSITION GIVEN FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL
AS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION FOR SUCH A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ANYWAY...SINCE THE MAIN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS ARE
SITUATED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BROWNSVILLE IS APPARENTLY
INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  
INDEED...GRACE MAY NO LONGER BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...WE ARE RELUCTANT TO DOWNGRADE THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO
LANDFALL...AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW CONVECTIVE FLAREUP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12 WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY.  SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
GRACE SHOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM INLAND WITHIN 12 HOURS OR LESS.  THE
CURRENT NHC TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON
A FASTER INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. 
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM GRACE SHOULD BE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND OR WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 27.0N  96.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 27.8N  97.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 29.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 29.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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