Tropical Depression ELEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE
DEPRESSION PRODUCING SOME SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE
APPEARANCE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHEAR. THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 310 DEGREES
OR NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 25.2N  92.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 26.6N  94.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 28.5N  96.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  98.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N 100.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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