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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2003

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING FABIAN FOR
THE FIRST TIME.  ALTHOUGH THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED VIA SATELLITE...THEY MEASURED
WINDS TO 133 KT AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL.  USING THE 90 PERCENT
RULE FOR 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS YIELDS A SIMILAR INTENSITY AS IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG HURRICANE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY
BE DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. 
HOWEVER FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW PACKAGES.  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
IS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN...AND CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING.

THE NOAA G-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT OF FABIAN YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND THOSE DATA SHOULD HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATED INTO THE 00Z
RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  ONE INTERESTING ASPECT WAS THAT THE
INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER
CIRCULATION OF FABIAN THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS.  THIS WAS PROBABLY
DUE TO THE SAMPLING SOME OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE
WITH GPS DROPSONDES FROM THE JET MISSION.  EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z RUN
USED THIS MORE REALISTIC RENDITION OF FABIAN FOR ITS INITIAL
STATE...ITS FORECAST POSITIONS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THOSE
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THE IMPROVED DATA FOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOULD GIVE US GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE
RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 18.6N  55.8W   120 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N  57.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 19.6N  59.2W   120 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 20.7N  61.2W   120 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 22.0N  63.0W   120 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 25.0N  66.0W   115 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  68.5W   110 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 32.5N  69.5W   100 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC