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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003
 
THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT AGAIN IN BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES. IT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERFECT ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OR CDO
AND SURROUNDED BY PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS
EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE FROM ALL AGENCIES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.
THIS MAKES FABIAN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A MORE ACCURATE INTENSITY WILL BE
DETERMINED EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES
THE HURRICANE.
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD WARM WATERS AND INTO A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WV IMAGES SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AHEAD OF FABIAN HAVE BEEN DISAPPEARING AS CORRECTLY FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS.  THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE THE LARGE SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE...AT THIS STAGE...FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGES
WILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS.
 
FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE HURRICANE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A
VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A TRACK
PARALLEL AND AWAY FROM THE U.S EAST COAST.  THE OUTLIER IS THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LETS FACE IT...FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRACK ENSEMBLE ALL ALONG.
 
A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET IS ALREADY LAUNCHING DROPSONDES IN THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. TIME WILL TELL IF THE DROPSONDE DATA WILL
IMPACT FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.2N  54.0W   115 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.3N  55.7W   120 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  58.0W   120 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N  60.0W   120 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   120 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.0N  65.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  67.5W   120 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 30.5N  69.0W   120 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC