ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003 THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT AGAIN IN BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES. IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERFECT ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OR CDO AND SURROUNDED BY PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM ALL AGENCIES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS. THIS MAKES FABIAN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A MORE ACCURATE INTENSITY WILL BE DETERMINED EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD WARM WATERS AND INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WV IMAGES SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF FABIAN HAVE BEEN DISAPPEARING AS CORRECTLY FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE...AT THIS STAGE...FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS. FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE HURRICANE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A TRACK PARALLEL AND AWAY FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. THE OUTLIER IS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS FACE IT...FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE ALL ALONG. A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET IS ALREADY LAUNCHING DROPSONDES IN THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. TIME WILL TELL IF THE DROPSONDE DATA WILL IMPACT FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.2N 54.0W 115 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 18.3N 55.7W 120 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 19.0N 58.0W 120 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 20.0N 60.0W 120 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.0N 65.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 27.0N 67.5W 120 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 69.0W 120 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC