Tropical Storm FABIAN

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TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS
AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THERE IS FAIR OUTFLOW AT THIS
TIME. AN SSMI PASS AT 0930Z SHOWED A RING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CENTER OF FABIAN. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 3.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS STILL RAGGED...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.
SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES FABIAN ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL BE LOW
SHEAR AND HIGHER SSTS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHIPS DEPENDS
ON THE GFS MODEL WHICH IS FORECASTING LOW SHEAR ALONG THE PATH OF
THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW A BAND OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL BRINGS FABIAN TO 100 KNOTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING.

FABIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...A LITTLE SLOWER...AT ABOUT 14
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FABIAN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE LONG RANGE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH MOVES FABIAN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 15.5N  43.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 15.8N  46.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  48.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N  51.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N  53.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  57.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N  60.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  64.0W    80 KT
 
 
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