Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression NINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE
OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
DISRUPT DEVELOPMENT.  THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE SOME WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO HIGH TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...STRENGHTENING IS
EXPECTED ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BACK OVER WATER BETWEEN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY FAVORABLE. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DESTROYED OVER LAND. 

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS 
STEERED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEYOND 3 DAYS AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH AND BREAKS DOWN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL 
MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. LET'S SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 12Z MODEL RUNS. 

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DETERMINE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.    
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 16.4N  68.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N  70.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N  72.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N  74.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N  75.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N  77.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  78.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  80.0W    60 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC