Tropical Depression SEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS FORMED FROM THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH SPAWNED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGES
AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT A CONVECTIVE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE MOVED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVED
NORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS MORNING AS
INDICATED BY THE NWS COASTAL RADARS...HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.   

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS VERY HIGH FOR A TYPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BUT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE GRADIENT IS THE
STRONGEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SHELF WATER THAT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. 

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT
11 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
DEPRESSION CROSSES THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. 

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER...AS MOST OF THE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
WELL REMOVED FROM IT. 

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1800Z 30.2N  80.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.5N  81.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 33.5N  81.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 35.5N  81.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 
 
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