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Tropical Depression SIX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...AND YET ANOTHER JULY DEPRESSION IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... 
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION DEFINED BY TWO ILL DEFINED HOOKING
BANDS. THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SHIPS MODEL ONLY SHOW 3 TO 6 KNOTS OF SHEAR WHICH IS A VERY LOW
VALUE AND IN FACT...4 OF 5 PARAMETERS OF THE JOINT HURRICANE TEST
BED RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCHEME ARE SATISFIED. THEREFORE...
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
THERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH COVERING MOST OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A   
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN 5
DAYS...THE LATEST UK MODEL RUN HAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE GFS MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF
CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE GFS. 
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 12.4N  44.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.5N  46.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.0N  49.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 13.5N  52.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 14.0N  56.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N  62.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N  68.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N  75.0W    65 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC