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Hurricane CLAUDETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003
 
CLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES
THE TEXAS COAST.  THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOSED AND CONTRACTED TO 25 NM
DIAMETER....WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB.  THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING THE HURRICANE REPORTED 80-85
KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL....WHILE WSR-88D
DATA FROM HOUSTON HAS INDICATED WINDS NEAR 90 KT. BASED ON THIS...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  PART OF THE EYE AND
EYEWALL ARE ALREADY OVER LAND...SO ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...
CLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR.

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TRACKWISE.  CLAUDETTE IS MOVING 285/9 ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. 
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.

NOTE: AN EYE DROPSONDE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX RECEIVED AFTER THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS TRANSMITTED REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 979 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY REACH
75-80 KT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE CLAUDETTE WEAKENS OVER
LAND.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 28.5N  96.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 28.7N  97.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 29.0N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 29.5N 102.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 30.0N 104.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC