Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003
 
WITH SEVERAL LITTLE CLOUD SWIRLS PRANCING ABOUT...IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER FROM EITHER RECON OR SATELLITE
DATA...BUT THE CYCLONE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE BASICALLY ON TRACK.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS BEGINNING TO
SLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10. CONVECTION
REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS SOME HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AIRCRAFT REPORTS OF 55 KT WINDS AT 1000 FT
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 45
KT.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC
REASONING.  CLAUDETTE IS ALREADY WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM LOUISIANA WESTWARD...THE CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND TO THE WEST WITHIN 36
HOURS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE
OVERALL STEERING CURRENT.  THUS A SLOWER MOTION IS EXPECTED AFTER
THE STORM TURNS TO THE WEST.

THE UPPER-LEVER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN CLAUDETTE IN A
SHEARING FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  IN ADDITION...
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS
TIME.  THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM.  ONE REMAINING CONCERN IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD RELAX SOME AFTER 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  

SPECIAL NOTE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPEARS TO NO LONGER
CALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THIS IS BECAUSE THE 72
HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND.  CLAUDETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.   

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 24.1N  91.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 24.8N  92.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  93.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 25.8N  94.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  95.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     17/1200Z 25.5N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC