Tropical Storm BILL

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TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH BILL. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY OBSERVED
BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THERE IS
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BILL TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE
BEFORE LANDFALL. A NEW RECON WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 12 UTC.
 
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL LATER
TODAY. TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS BILL NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE
COAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BILL OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
 
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 27.6N  91.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 29.2N  91.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 32.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 34.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 35.0N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 36.0N  80.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 37.0N  72.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 
 
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