Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231737
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1200 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS RAINBANDS AFFECT THE COAST OF 
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.1 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is 
expected to continue through Thursday. A general west-northwestward 
motion is forecast on Friday and over the weekend. On the forecast 
track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although it is 
forecast to remain offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven