Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231444
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Polo is continuing to 
undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with infrared imagery showing 
multiple rings of cold tops near and around the center. Overall, 
the hurricane is not as intense as it was 24 h ago, as the eye has 
become less distinct and the eyewall cloud tops have warmed. The 
various satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, and 
based on this trend the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly 
generous 130 kt.  Outer rainbands in the northeastern semicircle 
have reached the coast of Mexico.

Polo is starting its forecast turn toward the northwest with the 
initial motion now 325/4 kt.  Water vapor imagery suggests a 
mid-level ridge is building over Texas and Mexico, and the 
dynamical models forecast this ridge to build westward to the north 
of Polo for the next 2-3 days. This evolution should result in Polo 
moving northwestward and then west-northwestward with some increase 
in forward speed. The forecast becomes more uncertain after 60-72 
h. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to the north to weaken
around that time as a mid-latitude trough moves into the western 
United States. There is also the possibility of interaction with 
Hurricane Odalys to the west. The guidance becomes divergent by 
120 h, with the GFS/HCCA/Google DeepMind/Florida State 
Superensemble showing a northward motion close to Baja California, 
while the regional hurricane models/UKMET/Canadian show a 
northwestward motion farther away from Baja.  The track forecast 
goes with the northward motion scenario, but there is a significant 
amount of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast.

The trends of the intensity forecast guidance suggest that Polo 
could weaken a little during the next day or so, followed by 
re-intensification during the ensuing 24 h. The first two days of 
the intensity forecast follow these trends, and there could be 
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles 
superimposed on top of this overall trend. After 48 h, the 
environment gradually becomes less favorable due to slightly 
stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air entrainment. The 
guidance forecast slow weakening during this time, and the new 
intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast is near the upper 
edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and then lies closer to the 
middle of the guidance envelope.

While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer 
rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next 
day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force 
winds.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions 
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.9N 102.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 16.5N 104.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.8N 105.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 17.0N 107.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 17.2N 109.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 111.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 20.7N 112.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven