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NHC

Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory

Advisory Number: 3
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 103.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 102.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 102.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.6N 103.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 103.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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