Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPA41 PHFO 261448
TCDCP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2026

Fausto's structure on satellite imagery continues to slowly lose 
organization, with the earlier cloud-filled eye no longer being 
observed. The remaining central dense overcast is also starting to 
become more asymmetric, likely due to dry air entrainment as seen 
from an earlier AMSR2 pass that showed the inner-core was 
significantly eroded on the western side. The 12 UTC subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and PHFO, 
though their Data-T numbers are decreasing. Objective intensity 
estimates range from 68 to 82 kt, and the initial intensity is being 
lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter and NOAA G-IV aircraft are scheduled to investigate the 
hurricane later today, and their data will be beneficial for 
refinements to the track and intensity forecast. 

The hurricane continues to move westward at 280/12 kt. This motion 
is expected to continue for the next several days as Fausto remains 
steered by a prominent low to mid-level subtropical ridge centered 
to its north. While the upper-level portion of this ridge is 
becoming eroded by a mid-ocean trough located north of Hawaii, 
Fausto is likely to become more vertically shallow, only being 
steered by the low-level flow later on in the forecast. The latest 
track guidance continues to be in good agreement through the next 
4-5 days, and the latest NHC track forecast is very close to the 
prior one, nearest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) 
aid. On the forecast track, Fausto should pass to the north of the 
Hawaiian islands on Tuesday night into Wednesday with the bulk of 
the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall remaining north of the 
islands. 

Dry air entrainment is likely to continue as Fausto moves into an 
even drier environment. This should result in continued slow 
weakening over the next 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, westerly vertical 
wind shear begins to increase sharply which will further hasten the 
weakening process, even as the storm begins to move over warmer sea 
surface temperatures. By the time Fausto passes north of the 
Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm, 
with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the 
low-level center and the strongest winds confined to the northern 
side of the circulation. By the end of the forecast, Fausto will 
likely lose convective organization, with it now forecast to become 
a remnant low in 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast is quite similar 
to the previous advisory and remains on the higher end of the 
guidance envelope.
 
Now that Fausto is in the Central Pacific, additional information on 
Fausto can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning 
with this advisory, 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions 
will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 
PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at 
hurricanes.gov
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the 
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although confidence continues to 
increase that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain 
north of the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to 
monitor the progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence remains high that swells generated by Fausto will 
reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing 
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to 
steadily build westward across the state over the next few days as 
Fausto approaches and passes to the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.9N 141.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 20.1N 143.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 20.6N 145.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 21.2N 148.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 21.7N 151.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 22.2N 153.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 22.8N 155.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 24.0N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 25.4N 165.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin