801 AXPZ20 KNHC 030351 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Flossie is centered near 19.8N 110.2W at 03/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach as far as 120 nm in the northern semicircle and 60 nm southern semicircle from the center of Flossie, with maximum wave heights to 25 ft. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 120 nm southeast of the center. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 5 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm of the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W and continues westward to a 1009 mb low pres near 10N97W and then to 12N112W and to 07N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to Hurricane Flossie and the tropical wave, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 04N to 14N and east of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Flossie. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high pressure system centered near 32N145W extends southeastward into the Mexican offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas are evident in the offshore waters of Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas of 8 to 12 ft and much higher are found between Cabo San Lucas, Las Tres Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands as Flossie passes through that area. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and 4-8 ft seas are noted across the Gulf of California, with strongest winds across the northern Gulf. Seas will build modestly across the entrance and southern portions of the Gulf overnight. Farther south, winds continue to diminish across the waters within 75 nm of the coasts between Jalisco and Michoacan. Elsewhere to the east, conditions continue to improve, with mainly moderate or weaker winds, except for strong gusty winds near thunderstorms. Combined seas are 6-8 ft primarily in mixed S and W swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Flossie is near 19.8N 110.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Flossie will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.4N 111.3W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 21.4N 112.7W Thu evening, weaken to a remnant low near 22.6N 114.2W Fri morning, 23.6N 115.9W Fri evening, 24.1N 117.4W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Elsewhere, large swell generated from Flossie will impact the waters and coasts from Colima and Jalisco to the central Gulf of California and Baja Sur to Punta Eugenia through late Thu. Expect fresh to strong SE winds through the Gulf of California through Thu morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas are possible off Oaxaca and Guerrero Thu night through Sat as an area of low pressure moves to the W-NW and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. This area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally west- northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours, but a medium chance through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong tropical wave is moving across the far eastern Pacific, and a tight pressure gradient over the SW Caribbean, support fresh to strong NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to 95W, with associated seas 6-9 ft. Clusters of strong thunderstorms are affecting the region, especially north of 04N. Mainly moderate southerly winds noted south of 06N, with moderate seas 5-8 ft in S swell, with the highest seas occurring south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will diminish on Thu. Low pressure is expected to develop downwind of Papagayo and south of Tehuantepec by Thu night, producing fresh to locally strong winds offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to large cross equatorial S to SW swell will affect the waters near the Galapagos Islands into Thu. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast across the entire region over the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The rest of the eastern tropical Pacific waters are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge just north of the area. This ridge results in gentle to moderate N to NE winds with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed swell west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in southern California allow for moderate to fresh northerly winds in the NE winds, along seas of 6-8 ft. South of the monsoon trough to 02N and between 90W and 120W, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 8-10 ft in S to SW swell prevail. Southerly swell of 6-8 ft dominates seas elsewhere across the equatorial zone. For the forecast, high pressure will persist to the NW of the area through the remainder of the week, with little change in wind strength W of 120W. The dominant marine feature will be the large southerly swell continuing south of 10N west of 90W through late Thu, followed by another pulse of moderate SW swell over the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds will remain active for the next several days from 10N to 15N between 105W to 120W, generating waves that will mix with the longer period SW swell in that area. $$ Delgado
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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Jul-2025 09:10:11 UTC