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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N123W MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE LOW CENTER FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED 
TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS IN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND 
133W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 128W AND 
131W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. THE CONDITIONS 
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...DRIFTING 
WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.  

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD ALONG 
118W/119W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP 
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 07N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND 
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N102W AND 05N105W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 33N131W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N127W. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 08N 
TO 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W.

A 04/1532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE THAT 
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE 
NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA JET...THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH 
PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND 
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD 
SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM DURING 
THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N131W. A RIDGE EXTENDS 
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER...TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND 
IS FOR WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 
NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 
TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 
90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF 
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE DESCRIBED IN OTHER 
PARAGRAPHS. THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS HELPED TO 
GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A 
BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ. 

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Jul-2015 09:49:51 UTC