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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160252
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 26.6N 112.1W 990 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 16 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 
TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. 
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF 
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL 
WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 21N109W ARE MOVING N-NE 
15 TO 20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS 
SLOWLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF 
ODILE. IT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE TO THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE 
IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM THIS 
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER WAS 
ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE NEAR 10N98W 1007 MB. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM SE 
QUADRANT AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT...300 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
390 NM NW QUADRANT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW NEAR 10N98W TO NEAR 
18N95W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 
NM E AND 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 12N90W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N98W 1007 MB TO 16N106W TO 11N124W TO 12N132W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N137W 1008 MB TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS N OF 08N E OF 87W TO THE COAST. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 14N W OF 134W AND 
WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N131W AND EXTENDS 
A RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N126W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 16N121W. 
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN 
WEAKENED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NW. THE SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDES A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM 
JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N142W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT 
ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 32N138W THROUGH 28N140W TO MAUI. THE DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
AND SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD. THE 1844 UTC ASCAT-B 
PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHED...BUT SEAS IN 
THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE FRONT 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WED EVENING.

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN 
EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. SEAS OVER 8 FT HAVE MERGED WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS 
GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS. SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH WED AS ODILE WEAKENS 
AND THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.

$$ 
SCHAUER



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 02:53:01 UTC