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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave north of 08N along 89W is moving slowly westward 
with associated convection inland over Central America. Another 
tropical wave north of 06N along 94W is moving west at 10 kt 
with associated convection within 75 nm east of the axis south 
of 12N. The waves are forecast to move slowly westward during 
the next 48 hours and become embedded within a larger area of 
broad low pressure south of Mexico early next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends westward across Panama and Costa 
Rica from area of low pressure in northern Colombia near 09N75W 
to 09N83W to 11N89W to 10N95W to 13N108W to 08N124W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm either side of the axis between 107W 
and 118W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds in the northern Gulf of California have diminished 
tonight as the pressure gradient across NW Mexico weakens. Light 
and variable winds are expected in the Gulf of California this 
weekend, as well as south of Tehuantepec, where a weak low is 
expected to develop near 12N10W. Gentle NW winds and 4-6 ft seas 
will prevail elsewhere through Sunday. A tropical wave moving 
south of southern Mexico will support scattered showers and 
thunderstorms the next couple of days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will become better established over southern 
Central America this weekend as a tropical wave along 89W moves 
further west. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
08N with 4-5 ft seas. South of 08N, moderate to fresh south to 
southwest winds are expected with seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A rather weak pressure gradient is in place across the tropics 
and subtropics, resulting in a large area of gentle to moderate 
trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. A weak ridge will build over 
NW waters near 30N133W this weekend and meander over the area 
into early next week. As this ridge develops, winds south of 20N 
and north of the convergence zone will increase slightly and 
increase seas to 6-8 ft by Monday evening. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-May-2017 09:20:21 UTC