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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT DEC 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N87W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
07N87W TO 06N97W TO 07N109W TO 06N114W TO 07N121W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N. MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC W OF 120W. A 
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN GALE FORCE 986 MB LOW PRES N-NE 
OF HAWAII AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG SE 
WINDS IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE DEEP LOW 
WILL OCCLUDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUN. 
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF THE AREA SUN WITH 
WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING N OF 22N 
W OF 135W...AND MAX SEAS TO 13-14 FT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WEAKENING HIGH PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS 
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. GAP WINDS WILL WEAKEN SUN THEN REDEVELOP EARLY MON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING E BEHIND A DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER NW MEXICO... 
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... 
THEN DIMINISH SUN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT STRONG GAP 
WIND EVENT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL COMMENCE SUN NIGHT 
AND INTENSIFY EARLY MON MORNING. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
BELOW GALE FORCE.

$$
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Dec-2014 15:30:50 UTC