Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 262205

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.


A tropical wave has an axis along 82W north of 05N moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave has been tracked with 
convection over south America the past few days. Scattered 
strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave over 
northern Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 77W and 81W. This 
wave is forecast to continue during the next 48 hours, and 
become embedded within a large area of expected broad low 
pressure south of the southern coast of Mexico early next week.

A tropical wave has an axis north of 06N along 92W/93W moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is at the leading edge of a 
surge of low to mid level moisture, which has lead to the 
development of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
within 180 nm east of the wave from 09N to 13N.


The Monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 11N91W. It resumes 
to the west of the tropical wave near 12N94W to 13N101W to
12N106W to 09N118W to 09N130W. The ITCZ axis extends from 
09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Other than convection associated with
the two tropical waves discussed above, scattered moderate 
convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 103W and
107W, within 60 nm south of the axis between 132W and 135W, and
also between 138W and 139W.



A surface trough extends from a 1003 mb low over southeast
Nevada south-southeastward to across northern portion of
the Gulf of California, and to just inland Baja California south
to near 22N109W.  The pressure gradient between this low and 
higher pressure near Guadalajara is producing strong west to 
southwest winds south of the low to 30N over the northern Gulf of
California. These winds are likely supporting seas to 8 ft over 
this area. The winds are expected to continue through early 
Saturday before the low weakens and winds diminish. The pressure 
gradient between the trough over Baja California and higher 
pressures northwest of the region will support fresh northwest 
winds within about 90 nm of the west coast of Baja California 
through early next week. Occasionally strong winds will be 
possible very near the coast in the afternoons. Otherwise, mainly
moderate northwest winds are expected west of Baja California.

Elsewhere, A tropical wave moving south of southern Mexico will
support numerous showers and thunderstorms the next couple of
days. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring over the
offshore waters of Mexico south of the Baja California with seas
of 4 to 6 ft. These winds and seas are expected to prevail for 
the next several days. 


The monsoon trough will intersect the region from west to east
through the next several days, supporting convection mainly 
north of around 03N. North of the trough axis, mainly light to
gentle winds will prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of
the trough axis moderate to fresh south to southwest winds can 
be expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft.  


A storm system northeast of the discussion area has been causing
a weak pressure pattern over the northern waters north of 20N and
west of the Mexico offshore waters. A frontal trough is moving 
across the northeast waters from 32N118W to near 24N130W. This
is keeping a rather weak pressure gradient in place resulting 
in mainly gentle to moderate winds over these waters with seas 
of 5 to 7 ft. Winds to the south of 20N are a little stronger, 
with moderate to locally fresh northeast winds from the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough axis to 20N, and moderate and southerly winds
to the south of these axes. A weak ridge is forecast to build 
over the northwestern waters near 30N133W over the weekend and 
meander over the area into early next week which will continue to
support gentle to moderate winds over the northern waters west 
of the Mexico offshore waters. As this ridge develops, winds over
the waters south of 20N and north of the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough
will increase slightly resulting in combined seas to near 8 ft 
over these waters by early next week. 


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Page last modified: Friday, 26-May-2017 22:05:54 UTC