268 AXPZ20 KNHC 010405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Flossie is centered near 16.5N 104.3W at 01/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are 23 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 14N to 18N between 98W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection in bands are elsewhere from 07N to 20N between 98W and 120W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, tonight through Tuesday. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N98W, then continues W of Hurricane Flossie from 13N109W to 10N122W to 06N136W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N136W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection related to Hurricane Flossie, scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 13N E of 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge just west of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft in NW swell. Light and variable winds are seen in the northern half of the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Tehuantepec while gentle to moderate SE winds are over the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas in the Gulf of California are slight. For the forecast, Hurricane Flossie will move to 17.4N 105.7W Tue morning, 18.2N 107.3W Tue evening, 18.9N 108.7W Wed morning, 19.5N 109.7W Wed evening, 20.0N 110.4W Thu morning, and weaken as a post-tropical cyclone near 21.0N 111.4W Thu evening. Flossie will weaken to a remnant low near 23.0N 113.5W late Fri. Otherwise, a strengthening surface ridge N of the area should induce fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California by the middle of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are across the Papagayo region and downwind to neat 89W. A ridge across the NW Caribbean supports these winds. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere in the Central America offshore waters along with moderate seas in S swell. Between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE to S with 7 to 8 ft in S swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Wed. Winds may increase to strong speeds, with moderate to rough seas by Wed night into Thu due to the pressure gradient between a ridge to the N and a low pressure along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial S to SW swell will affect the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 40N138W. Its associated ridge dominates the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 120W, producing gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in general 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Mainly moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough. These winds increase to fresh to strong speeds S of Flossie, and from 10N to 12N between 113W and 116W likely in association with convective activity there. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region, with little change in winds and seas through Tue night. By Wed, seas generated by strong winds offshore the state of California will propagate across the northern forecast waters, building seas to 8 to 9 ft across most of the area N of 28N between 120W and 128W by Thu night, and N of 27N between 120W and 126W by Fri morning. $$ Ramos
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Jul-2025 08:53:49 UTC