000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220300 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Aug 22 2017

Corrected to fix date and time

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Hurricane Kenneth at 22/0300 UTC is near 19.2N 
132.1W, moving NW or 315 degrees at 9 knots. The estimated 
minimum central pressure is 969 mb. The maximum sustained wind 
speed is 90 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Numerous strong 
convection is from 18N to 20N between 130W and 132W. Scattered 
moderate convection is elsewhere from 17N to 22N between 130W 
and 132W. Kenneth is forecast to weaken steadily and become a 
tropical storm by Wednesday. Please refer to the National 
Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers 
WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W from 18N southward to 10N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pressure near 
10N89W 1010 mb to 10N105W to 10N115W to 07N125W, resuming near 
14N133W beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
210 nm S of its axis between 102W and 120W and within 120 nm W 
of 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail along the eastern side of the Baja 
California Peninsula and Gulf of California through the end of 
the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the 
trough to the north of 29N. The pressure gradient between this 
elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging W of the area 
will allow for moderate NW winds off Baja California through 
early Friday, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas will 
range between 3 to 5 ft seas.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through early Wed 
with seas to 7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 36N139W. A ridge extends 
to the southeast, through 18N115W. N swell generated by strong 
northerly winds N of the area is building seas of 8-9 ft north 
of 29N between 127W and 134W through early Tue, then conditions 
will merge with Hurricane Kenneth. Moderate to locally fresh 
anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough 
and W of 120W. 

$$
NR