000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040224 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 4 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Gale Warning: The remnant low of of former Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 21.5N113W, with a pressure of 1005 mb. Gale force winds are noted NE of the center of the remnant low, with seas peaking near 12 ft. The low is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves NW over the next couple of days, with winds and seas decreasing. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. South of Southern Mexico: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 98W from 03N northward. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N94W to 11N108W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 80W and 95W, and from 08N to 14N between 95W and 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued for Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, and on the possibility for tropical cyclone development south of southern Mexico. Aside from the gale conditions associated to Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are noted S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are over the central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie will gradually weaken and dissipate through early Sat, with winds and seas decreasing. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected over the Gulf of California through Fri before diminishing. Fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast winds and rough seas are possible off Oaxaca and Guerrero as an area of low pressure develops and moves west- northwestward offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally west- northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range across the discussion waters. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish Fri afternoon. Moderate to large cross-equatorial south to southwest swell will propagate through the waters southwest of the Galapagos Islands starting Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 110W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over much of the waters. Cross-equatorial swell wil bring seas of 8 ft over the waters south of about 01N between 102W and 115W starting later tonight, with little change through Sat. Expect for increasing winds and seas over the far eastern part of the area this weekend as a tropical cyclone may develop and move over these waters. $$ AL
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 04-Jul-2025 05:30:08 UTC