| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N95W 
TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W.NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 140W N OF 20N. AN 
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 20N140W. A 
FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST NEAR THE TROUGH 
AXIS. 1029 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 
33N144W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS 
PERSIST NW OF THE FRONT. THE SUPPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH IS DAMPENING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN 
STREAM TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO 
STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL 
SHIFT NE WITH THE MEAN RIDGE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING 
TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AND 
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY. MEANWHILE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 8 FT SEAS 
REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 06N140W BY LATE TODAY. 
THE SWELL WILL LARGELY DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUE. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR 12N115W 
UNDER A DEFORMATION AREA ALOFT AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N125W. 
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE 
NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N. THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE 
AFTERNOON. 

WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
DISSIPATES AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A SHARP 
UPPER TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE 
ADJACENT COAST OF SINALOA. 

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OVER EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A FRONTAL CURRENTLY IN THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
THROUGH TUE. FRESH GAP FLOW IS LIKELY THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AS WELL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN