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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE ITCZ TO
THE SW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 14-19 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRI MORNING.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE S-SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. THIS COMBINED SWELL WILL
ALLOW FOR 10-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
90W-102W TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO TODAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS
EVENING BEFORE RETURNING EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE FRI
MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED
BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW
AS 06N101W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10-14 FT WELL
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING ABOVE. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER THE
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N86W TO 03N95W TO 06N110W TO
02N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-118W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                           

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N127W
TO 20N110W. N-NE WINDS OF 5-15 KT CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE OPEN
PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110W-120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...
FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W OF 86W. A FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA S-SW TO
NEAR 03N82W THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE
WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
SHRINKING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. 

ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES WILL IMPACT THE TROPICS
FROM ABOUT 07N-13N W OF 128W THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH MAXIMUM
SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHERE NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW
SWELL ARE MIXING. TO THE N...NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W HAS BROUGHT 8-11 FT
SEAS TO THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN
NW WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU AND
SWEEP LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AND SEAS OVER 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA W OF 120W BY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TO 32N132W TO 25N140W BY FRI MORNING. PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20
SECONDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY FRI
MORNING WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THIS SWELL MAY MAKE FOR
LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS. 

$$
SCHAUER

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Feb-2016 15:34:34 UTC