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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR 
8.2N 125.3W. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE 
DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 280 DEG...13 KNOTS. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E QUADRANT AND 210 
NM OF CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME ON THU AND 
POSSIBLY A HURRICANE BY LATE FRI OR SAT.  PLEASE READ THE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR 
16.6N 137.1W. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE 
DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 265 DEG...14 KNOTS. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KNOTS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. THIS CONVECTION IS 
WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT CROSSES 140W. PLEASE READ 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 84W/85W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 
APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE 
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT 
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W FROM 07N TO 17N MOVING WEST AT 
15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 
16N104W. THIS INTERACTION WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 
14N.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 07N100W TO 08N115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W AND 105W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N139W TO 26N126W TO 20N111W. 
THE SLACKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
TYPICAL TROUGH THAT IS SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALLOWED NW 
WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO DAY TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 180 
NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 5 
TO 6 FT. 

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS RESULTING A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO 
25 KT TRADE WINDS  IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 
24N AND TO THE WEST OF 132W. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W OF 
THE AREA ON THU...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN S OF 20N ON FRI AS THE 
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL CYCLONE...CURRENTLY DEPRESSION NINE-E 
TRACKS WNW W OF 130W.  

GAP WINDS...                                                    
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS 
FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL 
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL 
HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AS NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW ALLOWS THE WIND SPEEDS TO REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT 
RANGE AGAIN.

A NARROW PLUME OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER 
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ALSO WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
OVERNIGHT THU INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI.

$$ 
COBB

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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Jul-2015 03:01:58 UTC