| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 29/2100 
UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W MOVING NW 
OR 310 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 
110W AND 117W. ANDRES HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE 
OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NW ACROSS THE OPEN OCEAN THROUGH SUN 
MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF 
MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING 
SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO 
LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 100W. THIS SYSTEM 
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE 
ANDRES. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH SOME 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 
11N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
BE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY ARE 
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09N124W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF 
CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. 

ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW 
AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.   

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS 
THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST 
AHEAD OF ANDRES APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS 
EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY 
EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO 
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT 
WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER 
SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER 
PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH 
GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT 
WITH SEAS TO 7 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BETWEEN A 
RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE DEEP 
TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE  
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-
E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. 

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE A 
ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO FRONTS ARE 
FORECAST TO MERGE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON SAT.

$$ 
GR

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 29-May-2015 21:58:49 UTC