Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 230605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1010 mb low
centered E of the Cape Verde Islands near 15N21W. The wave axis
extends from 18N21W to the low to 09N22W and it has been moving at
5 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of 
favorable wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive
dry air around the low while moderate moist with some patches of
dry air is S of the low. Meteosat enhanced imagery confirm the
presence of Saharan dry air and dust around the low where there is
lack of convection. Upper level divergence support scattered 
showers S of the low from 08N to 13N E of 25W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
15N41W to a 1009 mb low near 08N42W to 04N42W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable 
wind shear, is mainly in a very moist environment with some 
patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of
upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy 
showers and tstms from 0N to 04N between 41W and 50W, and
scattered showers within 250 nm of the low center. 

A tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands with axis extending 
from 14N60W to inland Venezuela, moving west at 5 knots within 
the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind 
shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust 
hinder convection at the time. 

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending 
from 20N83W to inland eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, moving west
at 20 knots within the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
favorable to neutral wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of
dry air ahead of the wave axis, which limit the convection to 
scattered to isolated showers S of 20N. Scattered heavy showers 
and tstms are E of the wave axis from 12N to 20N between 78W and


The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N22W to 06N26W. The 
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N26W to 04N41W to 
04N51W. For information regarding convection see the tropical
waves section.



Trailing rainbands of tropical depression Cindy N of the area
continue to support isolated heavy showers across the norther Gulf
N of 26N as indicated by Doppler radar data. Latest scatterometer
data show fresh to strong S-SE winds in this same region W of 87W.
Fresh winds are also noted in the far W basin W of 95W and in the
Florida straits S of 24N. Moderate gentle to moderate SE winds are
elsewhere. Otherwise, strong dry air subsidence across the basin
support clear skies. A tropical wave will enter the Yucatan 
Peninsula later today with scattered showers and thunderstorms. 
An upper level low ahead of this wave will move over the Bay of 
Campeche supporting heavy showers and tstms over the W Gulf W of 
90W over the weekend. 


An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean ahead of a
tropical wave along 84W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are E
of the wave axis with potential gusty winds from 15N to 20N. See
the tropical waves section for further details. The upper level
low support scattered heavy to isolated showers over Cuba and
adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. A 1009 mb low is
over NW Colombia linked to the EPAC monsoon trough, which support
isolated showers 120 nm off the Colombia coast S of 11N.
Otherwise, moderate trades are across the central and E Caribbean
ahead of the next tropical wave to enter the basin later today. The
upper-level low is expected to move northwest toward the 
southwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday with the tropical wave moving
westward into the East Pacific waters during the weekend. 
Increased probability of convection and precipitation is expected 
across Central America and southern Mexico through this period. 


Isolated showers are over SW Haiti and the Windward Passage
associated with a tropical wave just W of Jamaica. An upper- 
level anticyclone continue to provide overall subsidence elsewhere,
thus supporting fair weather across the remainder Island.


There are three tropical waves in the basin. See that section 
above for further details. Otherwise, the Azores high prevails 
across the basin being anchored by a 1025 mb high near 40N26W. 
A weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as 1017 mb low near
25N55W, which will dissipated later today. No significant areas 
of convection are occurring away from the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for the next 
couple of days.

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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Jun-2017 06:05:20 UTC