Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 010505

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

A strengthened pressure gradient across the south-central
Caribbean Sea is generating near gale to gale force NE to E winds
in the Gulf of Venezuela and in the near coastal waters off of
Colombia. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Tropical wave extends from 06N22W to 16N22W moving W at 15 kt.
Examining long-term METEOSAT satellite imagery and Hovmoller
diagrams...the wave has tracked across Africa the past few days
with persistent active convection. However...while energy
continues moving westward...the wave exhibits a lack of convection
at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 03N32W to 13N32W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 26W-37W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust north of the ITCZ region.
As a result...widely scattered moderate convection is confined to
04N-08N between 26W-37W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N50W to 15N51W moving W at 20 kt.
This wave is likely the southern vorticity maximum that lagged
slowly behind the tropical wave to the west currently along 63W.
This piece of energy coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of 11N51W
with isolated moderate convection from 09N-13N between 53W-57W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N63W to 17N63W moving W at 20 kt.
This wave is the northern vorticity maximum that moved well west
of the tropical wave currently along 51W. Seemingly the more
dominate feature with the wave the last few days...it coincides
with 700 mb troughing over the eastern Caribbean Sea between 61W-
67W. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-18N between 60W-65W.

Tropical wave extends from 05N79W to 14N79W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave continues moving within the southern periphery of a mid-
level ridge anchored to the north with axis along 24N. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is across northern Colombia...
Panama...and Costa Rica S of 11N between 73W-86W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N22W to 05N32W to 05N44W. Outside of convection associated with
tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N
between 08W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from the
Equator to 09N between 33W-46W.


Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over much of the eastern CONUS with the base dipping to
30N. Global model fields indicate mid-level shortwave energy
extends from over northern Florida SW to the central Gulf waters
near 25N90W. The troughing supports a stationary front extending
from SW Alabama and remains around 60 nm inland to the west into
eastern and far southern Texas. Most earlier convection across the
NE Gulf has dissipated...however a few isolated showers are
possible through the overnight hours N of 26N E of 91W.
Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends from southern
Florida to a 1015 mb high centered across the SW Gulf near 23N94W.
Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are
occurring across the basin this evening and this overall pattern
is expected through Monday night.

Water vapor imagery indicates NW flow aloft over much of the
western Caribbean providing overall fair skies this evening with
the exception of scattered showers and tstms occurring across
western Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters N of 20N between
78W-81W...and the far SW Caribbean waters off the coast of Central
America S of 14N. The presence of a tropical wave along 79W is
also providing focus for scattered showers and strong tstms across
northern Colombia and portions of Central America. Farther east...
upper level troughing associated with an upper level low centered
north of Hispaniola near 21N72W dips south over the central
Caribbean providing moist southwesterly flow aloft E of 72W. While
most of this moisture is in the form of middle to upper level
cloudiness...the addition of a tropical wave along 63W will
provide low-level focus for scattered showers and tstms the next
couple of days across the basin as the wave moves W. Currently
scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the Leeward
Islands and adjacent coastal waters in the vicinity of 17N62W.

Currently...a few isolated showers are possible through the
overnight hours across the island. Southwesterly flow aloft is
noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered
north of the island near 21N72W. This environment along with peak
daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and
tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.

An upper level ridge axis extends NE from an anticyclonic
circulation centered over the NW Bahamas near 26N79W providing a
favorable upper level diffluent environment on the northwestern
periphery of the ridge. Widely scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring N of 24N W of 78W. Otherwise...the remainder
of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored across the central North Atlc. This surface ridge also
influences much of the central and eastern Atlc as the 1036 mb
high is centered W-NW of the Azores near 40N36W.

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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Jul-2016 05:55:02 UTC