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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 072340 AAA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 992 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO 25N74W TO
22N77W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF
FRONT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC THIS
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N83W TO 25N86W TO 24N94W TO
22N98W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE
FRONT TO 92W BEGINNING 09/0600 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N73W TO 27N77W TO 24N80W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W BEGINNING
09/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N08W
TO 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-03N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF. THE SW GULF HAS 10-15 KT N WINDS...WHILE THE E GULF
AND FLORIDA HAS 15-25 N WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WNW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO NE NICARAGUA
ALONG 17N82W 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF 77W WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE WITH SHOWERS.    

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO
HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO 25N72W
TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF
THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT ON TUE FOR ANOTHER GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA