Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 271137

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 27.9N 52.0W at 27/0900
UTC or about 715 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving northwest
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 27N-31N between
49W-55W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.


Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 27W
from 10N-15N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus no associated
showers or convection. 

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends from 20N80W to
11N83W moving west 10 to 15 over past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb global model trough and is embedded
within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 19N to the coast of Central America
between the wave and 88W. 


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W and continues along 13N23W 8N34W to 5N44W
where the ITCZ begins and continues into South America near
5N52W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 11N-13N east of 19W to the coast of west
Africa, within 90 nm of a line from 9N21W to 6N40W, within 120
nm of 6N between 41W-50W, and within 75 nm of a line from 8N48W
10N54W to 9N60W. 



An upper trough centered along the coast at the Texas/Mexico
border covers the west Gulf this morning. An elongated upper low
is centered over south Alabama with the trough axis extending
from the central Florida peninsula to northwest Mississippi. An
upper ridge is anchored over the Yucatan peninsula and extends a
ridge axis north along 26N87W then northwest between the above
upper troughs to southeast Louisiana. A surface trough is over
the west Gulf extending at 27/0900 UTC from 28N93W along 26N93W
to 21N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 27N-30N between 86W-95W with isolated
showers and thunderstorms dotting the remainder of the east Gulf
north of 22N east of the surface trough. The remainder of the
west Gulf is under clear skies this morning. The low between
Cuba and the Bahamas is expected to drift into the southeast
Gulf Sunday then weaken as it moves into the central Gulf. 


The upper ridge over the Yucatan peninsula dominates the
Caribbean south of 20N west of 72W while an upper low over the
central Atlantic covers the remainder of the Caribbean. An upper
trough extends from the west Atlantic over Cuba near 21N77W then
west to the western tip of Cuba creating a diffluent environment
to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
90 nm along the south coast of Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-18N between 69W-79W. The
activity in the west Caribbean is due to the tropical wave.
Tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean late in the
weekend/first of next week. 


Currently isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
remain across the island. Heavy rains, with the potential to
cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over
Hispaniola through today.


An upper trough extends through 32N67W along 27N73W to over Cuba
near 21N77W then west to the western tip of Cuba. A surface
trough extends from 26N75W through a weak 1009 mb low between
the Bahamas and Cuba near 23N77W to over central Cuba near
22N79W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are from over the Bahamas to the north coast of Cuba between 74W-
78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of
29N to the coast of Cuba west of 78W to over the Florida
peninsula. A 1010 mb low is centered southwest of Bermuda near
31N66W with a surface trough extending from the low along 29N66W
to 27N67W with scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms within 120 nm northeast semicircle from the low
and isolated showers and possible thunderstorms within 90 nm
east of the surface trough. A cutoff upper low is in the central
Atlantic near 21N57W and covers the east Caribbean. This upper
low is drawing moisture away from Tropical Storm Gaston,
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
75/90 nm of line from 27N55W 24N59W to 19N60W. The remainder of
the east Atlantic north of Tropical Storm Gaston east of 60W is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a series of highs north
of the discussion area and a 1022 mb high near 32N35W. The low
between the Bahamas and Cuba will weaken and drift westward into
the Straits of Florida through Sunday. The low southwest of
Bermuda will drift west toward Georgia and South Carolina this

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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Aug-2016 11:37:46 UTC