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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271021
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc with axis extending from 
11N23W to 01N23W, moving W at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows a 
moderate moist environment near the ITCZ with dry air in the 
Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave 
reflection. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 
09N36W to 01N37W, moving W at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows a 
moderate moist environment near the ITCZ, with dry air in the 
Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave 
reflection along 38W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the 
wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the W Atlc with axis extending from 13N55W 
to 05N56W, moving W at 20 kt. This wave shows a well defined 
inverted-V surface reflection on satellite imagery. CIRA LPW 
imagery shows a moist environment. The 700 mb analysis shows a 
good wave reflection. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-
12N between 54W-58W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the 
remainder of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 
16N62W to 08N62W, moving W at 15 kt. Unfavorable wind shear and 
Saharan dry air across the wave environment is hindering 
convection at this time. There is a very pronounced 700 mb wave 
reflection, however, along 62W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 10N14W and 
continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 06N23W. The
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N25W and continues to
04N36W. The ITCZ resumes again W of another tropical wave near 
03N38W and continues to the coast of South America near 01N50W. 
Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 15W-21W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is located over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf. 10-20 kt SE 
surface winds are over the W Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge is
over the Gulf with axis along 91W. Strong subsidence is over the 
Gulf. Upper level moisture is over Texas. Expect showers to 
advect into the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula, over 
the next 24 hours.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The monsoon 
trough extends over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered 
moderate to strong convection. Further N, isolated moderate 
convection is along the coast of Nicaragua, and inland over 
Honduras and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the 
W Caribbean. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean with 
strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical 
wave to move W over the the E Caribbean. Also expect continued 
convection over the SW Caribbean, and Central America. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Saharan dust continue to be reported across the Island and is
observed in satellite enhanced imagery. Water vapor imagery shows
strong subsidence over the Island, hindering convection. However,
patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, 
will produce isolated showers over the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front in the SW N Atlc long 31N64W to 29N72W. A stationary
front continues to 25N79W. Scattered showers are over portions of
the N Bahamas. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central 
Atlantic near 29N48W. Three tropical waves are over the tropical 
Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more 
details. Saharan dry and dust is noted across much of the Atlantic
Ocean between 10N-25N. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
level low is centered near 23N59W producing upper level 
diffluence with scattered showers from 20N-27N between 50W- 55W. 
Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic front to drift E,
while a new cold front will dip into the central Atlantic along 
31N between 25W-40W with showers. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa