000 AXNT20 KNHC 251751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 6N21W 5N30W 6N45W 7N54W. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SEEN NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16N44W TO 6N46W. THIS TROUGH IS ONLY CREATING A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N87W CONTINUING SW TO 25N90W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT DIPS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS TO 24N95W. SE OF THE COLD FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS HAS TAKEN PLACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST TO NEAR 18N94W. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS AND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS. THIS FRONT FALLS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N E OF 88W...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W TO 83W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC FROM 31N80W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC WATERS N OF 23N W OF 76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 72W TO BEYOND 32N72W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N53W TO 23N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 47W-54W. THIS LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N59W TO 25N51W. FARTHER EAST... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N37W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N40W TO 28N45W AND INTO THE 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 39W N OF 28N. $$ GARCIA/HUFFMAN
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