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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W 
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN 
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...      

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS 
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST 
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER 
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF 
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW 
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 
1800 UTC FRI.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND 
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING 
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 
THU. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S 
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N 
OF 30N. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Mar-2015 23:51:43 UTC