317 
AXNT20 KNHC 131022
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 14.2N 40.3W at 13/0900 
UTC or 950 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 15 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Lorenzo is moving toward 
the NW and this motion with some gradual slowdown is expected 
through tonight, followed by a turn northward on Tuesday. Little 
change in strength is forecasted today, but some gradual 
intensification is possible by the middle portion of this week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 12N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm on both sides of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 08N13W to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 07N35W. 
No additional convection is noted near the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure over the Mississippi Valley extends into the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4
ft over much of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed from the 
Florida Straits to 26N95W and shallow, isolated showers are 
evident near this feature.

For the forecast, a weak high pressure pattern will dominate the
basin through the work week, resulting in gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the Gulf. Winds are
expected to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central
Gulf Thu night through Fri night as the pressure gradient 
tightens some across the area. . 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the central and
western Caribbean, also impacting the Greater Antilles and Central
America. Localized flooding is possible, especially in mountainous
and low-lying areas. Weak high pressure across the Caribbean 
supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 14.2N 40.3W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Lorenzo will move to 15.0N 41.7W this afternoon, 16.2N 
43.4W Tue morning, 18.0N 44.4W Tue afternoon, 20.1N 44.7W Wed 
morning, 22.4N 44.2W Wed afternoon, and 25.1N 42.6W Thu morning. 
Lorenzo will change little in intensity as it moves to the 30.9N 
36.9W early Fri. Meanwhile, a moist weather pattern will maintain
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western and
central Caribbean during the next few days. A weak pressure gradient
will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate 
seas over much of the basin through the work week. A weak cyclonic
circulation may develop over the NW Caribbean toward midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo centered 950 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N73W to the NW
Bahamas, where it becomes a surface trough to the Florida Straits.
Divergence aloft and tropical moisture support scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms east of these boundaries to 70W. Fresh
winds and rough seas are found ahead of and behind these 
boundaries, mainly west of 68W. Farther east, a surface trough 
located SE of Bermuda and associated with the remnants of Jerry is
producing scattered showers north of 26N and between 57W and 63W.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas to 12ft are found north of 
27N and between 55W and 65W. The remainder of the SW North 
Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a weak pressure pattern 
that sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

The central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters are also under
the influence of a relaxed gradient as multiple storm systems
transit across the midlatitudes. In general, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas dominate these waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 14.2N
40.3W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 15 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 1006 mb. Lorenzo will move to 15.0N 41.7W this
afternoon, 16.2N 43.4W Tue morning, 18.0N 44.4W Tue afternoon, 
20.1N 44.7W Wed morning, 22.4N 44.2W Wed afternoon, and 25.1N 
42.6W Thu morning. Lorenzo will change little in intensity as it 
moves to the 30.9N 36.9W early Fri. Elsewhere, fresh to strong 
winds will continue to affect the waters north of 28N and between 
58W and 62W through tonight. In the meantime, a dissipating 
stationary front extends from a non-tropical low off the Carolinas
to NW Bahamas, followed by a surface trough to the Gulf of 
America. The frontal boundary will be reinforced today, and the 
merged front will extend from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and 
western Cuba as a cold front by Mon evening, and from 31N66W to 
the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue evening. Fresh to 
strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the 
front across the waters N of 27N by late Tue, and shift eastward 
through late in the week. 

$$
Delgado