Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231126

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
553 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

A 1012 mb low is centered near 26N87W with a stationary front 
extending SW from the low to the NW tip of the Yucatan peninsula
then to southern Mexico to near 18N93W. Near gale to gale force 
northerly winds are occurring across the western Gulf waters S of
21N W of 94W and are expected to persist through Thursday 
morning. Thereafter winds will diminish slightly and remain 
generally fresh to strong across the basin west of the cold front 
through Thursday night as the low moves NE into the SW North Atlc 
region. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A 1009 mb low is centered near 30N67W with the associated cold 
front extending S-SW to near 24N70W. The existing pressure 
gradient remains strong within the NE and E quadrants of the low 
generating near gale to gale force S-SE winds within 150 nm of the
center within the eastern quadrant. These conditions will persist
through the morning hours Thursday diminishing across the 
discussion area by Thursday night. See the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N20W to
05N30W to 05N40W to 04N45W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the
ITCZ from 04N56W to 12N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection 
is from 01N-06N between the Prime Meridian and 18W...and from 
06N-10N between 13W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
02N-16N between 24W-38W.


An amplified middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor
imagery over the basin with axis extending from over southern
Alabama near 32N87W to a base over southern Mexico near 18N99W. 
This troughing supports the Special Features low analyzed across 
the eastern Gulf and resulting near gale to gale force winds noted
west of the front. The low will be quick to move NE and into the 
SW North Atlc region by late Thursday night as the front 
continues across the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters clearing
east of the basin by Saturday. Until then...northerly winds are 
expected as high pressure will influence much of the basin through
the weekend.

A surface trough extends from 12N80W to 17N81W to western Cuba
near 22N80W with scattered showers and tstms occurring between
73W-83W. Other scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 12N
between 72W-84W in close proximity to the monsoon trough analyzed
along 10N. Otherwise...mainly gentle to moderate trades are 
occurring E of 80W. Little change is expected through Sunday 

Increased cloudiness and isolated showers are possible across
western portions of the island this morning as more active 
convection lies across the Windward Passage region and adjacent 
coastal waters W of 72W in association with a favorable divergent 
environment within southwesterly flow aloft.

A cold front enters the SW North Atlc region near 32N70W and
extends to 30N73W. While the front remains relatively benign... 
the SW North Atlc 1009 mb Special Feature low centered near 
30N67W is supported aloft by a mid-level shortwave in the vicinity
of 27N64W and continues to generate scattered showers and tstms N
of 23N between 56W-66W. Farther east...a weakening cold front 
slices across northern portions of the discussion area from 32N29W
W-SW to 28N43W becoming stationary along 28N to 56W. Isolated 
showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the front. 
Lastly...a weak 1012 mb low is centered near 20N44W with a 
surface trough analyzed NE from the low to 22N41W and SW from the
low to 15N48W. Isolated showers are possible from 18N-23N between

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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Nov-2017 14:37:23 UTC