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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041137
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 37.2W AT 04/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 835 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 9 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 
20N34W TO 23N36W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 
17W/18W FROM 8N-17N WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N18W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE 
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W 15-20 KT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 29W/30W 
FROM 11N-19N WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N 
MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W FROM 8N-
14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW 
INDICATED THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE 
OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE 1009 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N18W 
TO THE 1014 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N29W TO 12N38W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 10N48W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N52W TO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-
24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 25W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N91W DOMINATES THE GULF THIS 
MORNING AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W 
ATLC. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE TO N/CENTRAL GULF 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF LINE FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 28N88W TO 26N93W. A 
WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AT 04/0900 UTC ALONG 95W S OF 22N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL 
SHIFT W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND BECOME STATIONARY BY EARLY SAT 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NW TO 
THE NE TEXAS COAST. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED IN THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W AND EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 20N83W TO 
20N79W. A SECOND UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 77W AND 
IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO. A INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE IS 
BETWEEN THESE UPPER LOWS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS. THE WESTERLY UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 85W TO OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N/10N GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 80W AND FROM 11N-
13N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE 
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER 
LOW OVER PUERTO RICO IS GIVING THE ISLAND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. 
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRI NIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT AND SUN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER 
THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO 25N70W. A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER 
TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE SE COAST SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AT 
04/0900 UTC FROM 32N76W TO 28N80W AND GENERATING SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 
75W-80W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 
26N BETWEEN 47W-70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N49W ALONG 27N52W TO 24N57W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 
FROM 28N49W TO 31N45W. A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE 
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N58W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N24W. THE W ATLC SURFACE 
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW TODAY NEAR 30N77W. THE W ATLC 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 23N E OF THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS ON SUN WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL 
WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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Page last modified: Friday, 04-Sep-2015 11:37:58 UTC