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Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080851
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014

There has been no organized deep convection within Norbert's
circulation for more than 12 hours now, so the system is being
declared a post-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed is lowered
to 35 kt in basic agreement with a 0524 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that
indicated wind vectors of around 32 kt in the southwestern quadrant.
Since Norbert is expected to move over even cooler waters, it is
presumed that a faster rate of decay should occur during the next
couple of days, with dissipation forecast in 2-3 days. The official
wind speed forecast shows slightly faster weakening than the
previous one, with the expectation that the remnant low of Norbert
will be very weak when it approaches the north-central Baja
California peninsula.

Norbert has been moving northwestward or 320/5 kt.  The post-
tropical cyclone should turn toward the north and northeast during
the next couple of days ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough advancing
eastward offshore of the California coast. In 2-3 days, the shallow
remnant circulation should be pushed east-northeastward or eastward
by the low-level flow toward the coast of the northern Baja
California peninsula prior to dissipation.  The official track
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in best
agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture should continue to
spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United
States.  This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash
flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Norbert.  For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 27.4N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/1800Z 27.7N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  09/0600Z 28.5N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1800Z 29.0N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z 29.3N 116.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Monday, 08-Sep-2014 08:51:35 UTC