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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 051510
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Corrected capitalization in last paragraph.

Douglas remains devoid of deep convection, and since the sea
surface temperatures are below 22 deg C, there is little likelihood
of the system making a comeback.  Therefore the system is being
declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory.  The large
circulation has been slow to spin down, but gradual weakening is
anticipated with the cyclone expected to dissipate in about 72
hours.

The initial motion continues northwestward at about 8 kt.
Post-tropical cyclone Douglas should continue to be steered by the
flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.
The track guidance generally shows a turn toward the west-northwest
with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next couple of
days, and so does the official forecast.

For additional information on the remnant low of Douglas, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 23.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 24.4N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1200Z 25.4N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 26.1N 123.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 26.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Jul-2014 15:11:13 UTC