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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291456
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

Ulika's cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this
morning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the
east of the estimated low-level center location.  The initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from
SAB and TAFB.  A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of
Ulika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36
hours.  Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should
degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner.

The cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
is estimated to be around 320/6 kt.  The flow on the southern side
of a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward
the west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days.  The
official track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks
and only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast.

The next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch