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Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240839
TCDEP3

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Deep convection has become more concentrated in a small,
quasi-circular CDO feature, and overall the tropical cyclone has a
fairly symmetrical presentation on satellite images.  The initial
intensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates.  Georgette is forecast to
remain in an environment of vertical shear below 10 kt for the next
48 hours, but SSTs should cool to below 25 deg C over that time.
Therefore, some additional intensification is forecast over the
short term, but a slow weakening trend should be underway in 24
hours or so.  The official intensity forecast is a little above the
latest model consensus, IVCN, and near the high end of the guidance.

Based on satellite center fixes, the initial motion estimate is
about the same as in the previous advisory, or 290/9 kt.  A
mid-tropospheric anticyclone is currently centered to the north of
the hurricane.  This high is predicted to shift westward over the
next few days, leading to a slight weakness in the subtropical
ridge to the north of Georgette.  As a result, the tropical cyclone
should turn toward the northwest and decelerate.  Near the end of
the forecast period, Georgette will likely become a shallow cyclone
and turn toward the left in the low-level flow.  The official track
forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and leans toward
the latest GFS solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 15.2N 125.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 16.0N 126.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 16.9N 127.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 17.7N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 18.9N 129.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 20.8N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0600Z 22.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jul-2016 08:39:32 UTC