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Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290252
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

After appearing steady state throughout the day, the cloud pattern
of Lester has become a little better organized during the past
couple of hours with an eye apparent once again in satellite images.
The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt for this advisory, in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but
this could be a little conservative. The environmental parameters
for intensification are mixed. Although the shear is expected to be
light to moderate during the next several days, marginally warm sea
surface temperatures and intrusions of dry air could negate the
influence of the low shear. Based on the current trend and expected
conditions, some slight strengthening is shown in the short term
followed by a very slow weakening thereafter. This forecast is in
close agreement with the intensity model consensus and is not too
different from the previous NHC forecast.

The hurricane is moving westward about 12 kt on the south side
of a strong high pressure system.  Lester is expected to remain to
the south of mid-level ridging during the next several days, and
that should keep the system moving westward at about the same
forward speed.  The model guidance is in good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 17.9N 126.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 18.0N 128.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 18.1N 131.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 18.2N 136.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 18.1N 140.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 18.5N 145.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 19.7N 150.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi