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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271439
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Roslyn continues to be affected by strong southwesterly shear, with
the center of the tropical cyclone exposed to the southwest of the
associated deep convection.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt
for this advisory, which is an average of Dvorak estimates of
45 kt and 35 kt, from TAFB and SAB, respectively.  Roslyn should
slowly weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear, gradually
decreasing SSTs, and dry mid-level air that is wrapping around
the western portion of the circulation.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and
calls for Roslyn to become a remnant low in 36 hours, and
dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Roslyn is moving northeastward
or 045/7 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn northward by
tonight around the eastern portion of a mid- to upper-level trough
extending southwestward from a large cut-off low over northwestern
Mexico.  By late Wednesday, a weaker and more vertically shallow
Roslyn is expected to turn northwestward.  There is more spread in
the track models this morning, but little change was required
to the NHC forecast which is located near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 18.3N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 19.3N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 20.6N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 21.8N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 22.6N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Sep-2016 14:39:34 UTC