Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ43 KNHC 280838

200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Satellite images indicate that Jimena is continuing to rapidly
intensify.  The overall cold cloud canopy has expanded, with well-
defined banding features around the central dense overcast, which
has occasionally showed hints of an eye.  The initial intensity is
raised to 70 kt, a blend of the 65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates
and a 77 kt objective value from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/12 kt.  Jimena is expected
to move westward along the southern periphery of the subtropical
ridge for the next 24-36 hours.  After that time a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected, with some decrease in forward speed
likely late in the forecast due to a mid-latitude trough weakening
the ridge.  The track guidance continues to be in remarkable
agreement on the forecast for the next several days, with the NHC
model guidance tightly packed near the 0300 UTC forecast track, so
the new forecast is very close to the previous one.

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further
strengthening, with very warm water, high mid-level moisture and
low shear forecast for at least the next 48 hours. In response to
these conditions, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is
forecasting a 61 percent chance of a 30 kt increase during the next
24 hours. Thus, the official NHC prediction will continue to
explicitly indicate rapid intensification for the first day of the
forecast.  Most of the guidance shows the peak intensity around 48
hours, so the NHC forecast will as well, although it remains below
some of the guidance.  Beyond that time, slightly cooler SSTs are
expected, along with lower upper-ocean heat content values.
Therefore, slow weakening is indicated from days 3 to 5.  The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
after adjusting for the initial strength, and lies between the
forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which continue to perform
quite well with Jimena.


INIT  28/0900Z 12.1N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

Forecaster Blake

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 08:38:12 UTC