000
WTPZ42 KNHC 120233
TCDEP2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
800 PM MST Sat Oct 11 2025
 
Raymond has been void of deep convection for more than 12 hours and
has therefore degenerated to a remnant low.  Based on earlier ASCAT
data and current surface observations from southern Baja California
Sur, the initial intensity is estimated at 25 kt.
 
The remnant low of Raymond has been moving north-northwestward, or
330 degrees at 8 kt.  The center of the weakening low should move
inland over the southern portion of Baja California Sur this
evening. Most of the global and regional models show the remnant low
of Raymond dissipating by Sunday morning, and this solution seems
reasonable, given the unfavorable environment and land interaction.
An hour 12 forecast point is included here for continuity.
 
The low-level circulation of Raymond won't survive beyond Sunday
morning. However, the moisture associated with the larger envelope
from Raymond will support heavy rainfall, which could result in
flash flooding, into portions of northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern United States for the remainder of this weekend and
into early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 22.9N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  12/1200Z 25.3N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen