Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ42 KNHC 190851

200 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Polo is showing a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with the
low-level center located near the northern or northeastern edge of
the convection.  This is consistent with analyses of 20-25 kt of
easterly vertical wind shear impacting the cyclone.  Satellite
intensity estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB, and a
04Z ASCAT overpass showed 50-55 kt winds.  Based on these, the
initial intensity remains 60 kt.

The initial motion is 315/7.  Global models continue to forecast a
ridge of high pressure to develop westward from northern Mexico
during the next several days.  This should cause the track of Polo
to gradually bend toward the west-northwest. By late in the forecast
period, the weakening cyclone should be drifting westward and
southwestward in the shallow low-level flow.  The track guidance
shows little change from the previous advisory through 96 hours, and
then shows a more southwestward drift than forecast earlier.  The
new official forecast follows this, and it is in best agreement with
the consensus model TVCE.

The large-scale models forecast the shear to continue through the
forecast period as Polo moves over progressively cooler sea surface
temperatures.  This should lead to a gradual weakening as shown by
all of the intensity guidance.  The new intensity forecast is
similar to that of the previous advisory, calling for Polo to
weaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours and to degenerate to a
remnant low by 120 hours.


INIT  19/0900Z 18.9N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Beven

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 08:51:44 UTC