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Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 111433
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
1000 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Adrian consists of a rather insignificant-looking swirl of low
clouds with just a few isolated showers.  The system has been
devoid of significant deep convection since yesterday afternoon, so
it is being declared a remnant low on this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is again 315/6 kt.  The post-tropical
cyclone is likely to turn toward the west-northwest to the south of
a weak mid-level ridge over the next couple of days, and meander
within weak steering flow to the south of Mexico later in the
forecast period.

This is the last advisory on Adrian unless regeneration occurs.
For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 11.3N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  12/0000Z 11.8N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1200Z 12.5N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0000Z 13.0N  96.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1200Z 13.4N  97.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z 13.0N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z 12.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1200Z 12.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch