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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 300901
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Convection has again increased in association with Tropical
Depression Eight, with the data from the Morehead City, North
Carolina, WSR-88D radar showing weak convective banding in the
northern semicircle. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft up to this writing show flight-level winds
of less than 30 kt and a central pressure near 1010 mb.  The initial
intensity remains 30 kt, and this might be generous.

The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear
environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest
strengthening is possible if the current convection can persist near
the center.  After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due
to baroclinic influences as the cyclone begins to interact with a
frontal zone.  The new intensity forecast is the same as the
previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the
LGEM model.  One change to the intensity forecast is to indicate
that the system will become an extratropical low at about 72 hours
before the cyclone dissipates within the frontal zone.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/5.  The depression
should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the
subtropical ridge later today.  After that, it should recurve
northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching
mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front.
The new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the
previous track during the first 24 hours based on the initial
position. After that time, it is similar to the previous track and
lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 33.9N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 34.4N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 35.3N  74.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 36.5N  72.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 38.4N  69.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 43.0N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Aug-2016 09:01:45 UTC