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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 300233
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The increase in convective organization that occurred earlier today
has not persisted, and the convection associated with Tropical
Depression Eight is currently minimal and disorganized.  The
initial intensity will remain 30 kt, pending the arrival of the next
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0900 UTC.

The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear
environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest
strengthening is possible if convection can persist near the
center.  After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to
baroclinic influences as the cyclone begin to interact with a
frontal zone.  The new intensity forecast is the same as the
previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the
LGEM model.  It should be noted that the system could dissipate
before 72 hours as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/4.  The depression
should continue a slow northwestward to northward motion toward a
break in the subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so.  After
that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in
advance of an approaching baroclinic trough.  The new forecast
track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center
of the track guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 33.8N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 34.2N  74.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 34.9N  74.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 37.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 41.5N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven